TODAY HAS BEEN STRANGE AS I IDENTIFIED LATE YESTERDAY STARTING WITH GLD. YOU MAY ALSO RECALL I SAW NEGATIVES, BUT VERY SHORT TERM IN TLT WHICH HAS MOVED LOWER SENDING 30-YEAR RATES HIGHER, TBT POSITIVE, BUT SHORT TERM AND IT IS UP, HIGHER EARLIER. THE GOLD CHART IS RIGHT ON YESTERDAY'S ANALYSIS AND WE SOLD DGLD AT EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME.
I'm not sure what these very strange late day signals meant, but they have played out EXACTLY as envisioned, something is clearly afoot, a Wall St. scheme, what it is is difficuklt to say as the Key-1-day Reversal is out of the question for today at least.
Here are the charts from the last update...
30 year yields gapped up on TLT's gap down, mentioned yesterday in the late day post, F_O_M_C Minutes Shakeout
"TBT, 2x short TLT looks like it is set for a small pop, perhaps pre-minutes release, but like GLD, it looks like a small move, though sharp, just like a head fake."
This is the exact reason yields are higher, TBT popped and TLT dropped as expected.
But even before that we saw something along the exact same lines, it effected nearly every asset, that was initially in GLD , Trade Idea (speculative) GLD / DGLD , before I realized how pervasive it was.
"It looks like GLD is going to see a quick move to the downside, I suspect after that, it makes a move higher. "
And GLD this morning with yesterday's 3x short GLD position, DGLD closed at the lows as volume picked up this morning, a sign a change in character and trend is ahead and true to yesterday's forecast, " I suspect after that, it makes a move higher. "
This is today's internals via TICK, note most of the time below +500 and -750 which is very moderate with larger extremes down to -1450 confirming actual strong selling. The trend has broken since the last update expecting a bounce off the lows intraday.
This is SPY 1 min
And the 3 min chart continues negative as it was yesterday.
QQQ 1 min has gone negative, also implying an intraday turn down
Yesterday's distribution shows a little better than in line on the 2 min, but as the 1 min deteriorates it should migrate to the 2 min as these are new divergences from today specifically ((new divergences always start on the fastest timeframes).
And 1 min IWM positive intraday and now negative
With IWM's trend of distribution through yesterday being no more than in line as it has been since the IWM lost -2% trending lower the last trading week.
DIA intraday positive at morning lows to a negative now and...
The larger 3 min chart with a small positive this morning at the lows and negative now.
I suspect we hang around this area, not straying too far before the minutes at 2 p.m.
Remember, watch-out for the knee jerk reaction, we may be able to use it.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment