I've seen and heard some say the gold move today (down) was due to a possible leak in the Swiss gold referendum's polls (no vote yet), however when the results of the poll were officially announced this morning, gold recovered which does not explain the 3C drop yesterday and the swift move that we predicted and played to perfection in DGLD, nor does it explain the other divergences like TLT, TBT, and even $USD.
In any case, I've heard everything from minutes being leaked which did happen in 2013, but so far I don't see what this was actually about, although it was definitely about something as it was nearly market wide and fast.
For instance, look at the $USD this morning...similar to gold's move except essentially the opposite of the $USD's legacy arbitrage for precious metals.
A quick drop and recovery in the $USDX with a positive divegrence currently.
As for leading indicators, they seem to be on the question mark side like most other assets (trading action today).
Intraday is not exciting, it's still the MACRO trends and recent trends that seem to say the most like this SPX/RUT Ratio indicator not confirming, but calling for a move lower in SPX.
On a long term scale, these are the signals in the indicator calling the July decline, the August lows, the September head fake move and decline, the October lows and rally, and negative again now with a large divergence between points #1 and #2 as well.
VIX is outperforming SPX by a bit today , but it has been the recent trend that speaks loudest...
VIX WAY outperforming the SPX and since the VIX custom indicator buy signal below..
There have only been 2 signals this year, VIX moves opposite the market so the first was a sell right at the October lows before the rally and VIX drop and a recent buy signal in which VIX has been trending up since. The last signal was an October 2013 VIX sell signal .
HYG's trend speaks the loudest, intraday it may have helped on the bounce, but remains below yesterday's close or in the red.
And the HY Credit trend, more or less flat today.
Pro sentiment is more or less flat, but with a horrible large trend in the leading indicator.
I'll be silent just after the minutes release looking for market opportunities, information and trying to find anything unique in the minutes, but I'll be back with updates ASAP and if I see anything we can use.
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