Tuesday, August 24, 2010

ERX (oil) vs UUP (dollar)

These are both the same 3C chart on a 1-min scale, which calls intraday moves, usually it is picking up on market maker and specialist activity. It is important in calling swings, but it is also the first place we see any change of character. Other then that, market makers/specialists are often called upon by institutional money to fill large orders, they try to do it in small chunks as to not drive up or drive down price, depending on the position. A VWAP is helpful in analyzing the market makers performance, as they accumulate, they will usually try to accumulate below the VWAP or distribute above it. A good fill for an institutional customer guarantees more business.
 Oil you can see saw accumulation right off the open, when prices got a little high around 11:45, they sold some, most likely to bring their target zone in line with the VWAP.
The dollar on the other hand saw distribution right on the gap up. Near 10:45 there was some accumulation although not heavy-just a relative divergence. Since then it seems the dollar is being sold.

5 comments:

JC said...

Sure, couple of minutes ago I send you an e-mail to say that the dollar drifted out of it's flag and didn't seem to be moving. I come back and low and behold it seems to be making its move. Sometime I feel like someone is watching my move and trying run the tape against me.

Brandt said...

I see the bearflag in UUP, it seems to be threatening a breakdown now.

Mr.X said...

Hi Brandt,
Do you see any accumulation of the broad market on 3C (both short and long term confirmation)? I'm thinking that unless they're able to rally it back up by the eod that doji/hammer reversal pattern might be out of perspective.
thanks!!

Quality Stocks said...

For what it is worth I feel the dollar will be in a bull market for at least another year and half.

Brandt said...

I agree that in the longer term the dollar appears to be headed higher, but nothing goes straight up or down and we are looking at day to day to a swing move right now, not a trend.