I ran about a dozen different scans looking for different things, some are limit orders for the potential bounce, many are position trades-that are core positions, a few are short term swing trades,it's all in the notes. Please set alerts so you don't miss any of these.
I see so many excellent short positions right at support, that alone leads me to believe that we'll see a move up, but the greater things about this is there are so many great positions for our main strategy. Some are ready to go now, some will be ready in a few weeks, but all have shown exceptional weakness and are trades that aren't already half spent, on other words, you are getting excellent positioning on them, that's why I don't want you to miss any that trigger.
When I use a lot of limit orders it's because we have short term uncertainty in the market and they give you an edge, you sacrifice a little profit, but with the excellent positioning of the trades, it's a moot point.
The dollar broke out right after the market close, it has declined significantly since then, this is also an indication of a higher probability of a bounce. As of now the dollar is about where it closed, that's quite a reversal tonight.
I don't want you to get lost in all of this bounce talk though, if I had to value this I'd value it at 10%, meaning the longer term short strategy is what is really important. A bounce provides a little extra money, better positioning on shorts and potentially helps the down trend accelerate faster and further for reasons I've mentioned several times today and the last few days.
So we'll see what we have in store for tomorrow, but remember, in this environment you want to be quick about taking any "gift" gains, anything double digit in a day or two I consider a gift. Unless I make mention of a long being a possible "position", "trending trade." Management of these quick trades is essential so if you find yourself with a nice gain, feel free to email me for a second opinion. NEVER let a gain turn into a loser.
Until the a.m....... I wish you all the best and I'm here for you. By the way, my short sale list, trades that I'm waiting for that perfect positioning, is now over 200 stocks.
5 years ago
3 comments:
Hi Brandt,
I had one thought regarding the analysis you perform on the leveraged ETFs that you might have a word on. I am having this doubt that since they are a function of the performance of the underlying ETF (eg. UPRO and SPXU depend on the performance of the S&P) that the accumulation/distribution analysis on themselves might not often be accurate. Although it is impossible for me to imagine accumulation in UPRO and a distribution in the SPY at the same time, I wonder does it make sense to even look at the acc/dis in the leveraged ETFs, isn't it enough to analyze just the underlying ETF?
I wonder also how bid/ask on the leveraged ETF is determined. If there is a huge buyer of the lets say UPRO and is hitting the ask offer, will that affect the SPY? I think not. Could that imply that if we see a strong accumulation in the DBO that we need to see also a strong accumulation in the USO in order to conclude the expectation of a higher move in oil prices.
Am I getting something wrong here?
Thanks!
From what I've seen SPY gets tremendous volume and are a pretty good proxy for the market. I'm not that familiar with UPRO, but in '08 the inverse ETF's did seem to be the tail wagging the dog. Anymore I'm not so sure.
The SPY is the best proxy I think for the market, but I look everywhere for clues. Each is a piece to the puzzle and hopefully it allows me to put together enough pieces to get a picture. The UPRO chart was interesting just to demonstrate the effects of a market maker during a rather docile market with no other seeming interference. If a bounce was expected to be short lived, I'd expect equity traders to move into the leveraged positions, but I have no real proof of that as of yet. Also each stock is accumulated in different fashion, whether that be due to market makers, demand, market cap, I don't know, but sometimes you'll find a leading signal somewhere surprising before it shows up in the SPY.
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