Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Get Ready-
Below you will find the Q's, the DIA and SPY on all 3 versions of 3C. All of them look pretty darn positive to me. Now gap up or bounce, it appears that there has been fairly robust accumulation today and the confirmation between the different indicators and ETFs is what I look for. I'd say this is the strongest signal I've seen yet since the idea of a bounce came about
5 comments:
These look to be spread over 1-10 min time frames. Does that suggest it might be a 1-3 day bounce if it materializes?
I'm net short on the market, but here's hoping that this bounce finally occurs on the indices over the next couple of days (as it makes the overall downtrend healthier) and here's hoping it takes oil up with it!
I hate to make predictions, but 10 min is fairly substantial and yes, i have seen it move a market for 3-4 days.
Frustratingly, 12 minutes after this post was made the DJIA collapsed another 50-60 points into the close. It's now got to rise that amount just to be back at the place where 3C showed there would be a bounce from!
And oil has dropped another 25 cents a barrel.
I think we need to see a good bounce in the markets and oil for at least a day as 3C has strongly suggested, for 3C to boost it's credibility, as things have been shaky recently in determining the most probably outcome.
I hear you, it's frustrating. Although in fairness yesterday we had a strong probability bounce working, we had moved up and created a bullish bull flag-continuation pattern, minutes later the Mexico city stock market bomb threat hit the wires. It took about two minutes after that for the market to sell-off hard, unexpected events like that are totally unpredictable and not visible to any analysis. Once we broke intraday support the rest of the 15 minutes was filling a wall of sell orders that were triggered at the intraday support break. I mentioned in one of my first posts today to be on the look out for reversal signals including hammers, stars or dojis for a possible bounce, we got a star right at a support level. I also warned about resistance which is where the market turned down, interestingly putting one final small pos. divergence right below the VWAP on huge volume. If you consider how bad the housing numbers were, it's incredible we didn't sell-off all day. Cramer had some bearish comments today on stop trading, this in itself makes me leary and in many cases can be taken as a counter indication in the short run.
Make no mistake though, 3C has clearly called this top and bear market rally and the true credibility will be established when this market falls completely apart. Please do not misconstrue my feeling we'll get a bounce with my true sentiment regarding this market which we have shorted since $118 (SPY) and held those shorts through even the July rally, that's my real conviction. The bounces are just signs we get and if they look strong enough some people wish to trade them, but that is not at all where my sentiment is. Market tops are always the hardest trading you'll ever experience followed by bottoms. the real money is in the trend, which we are well on our way towards establishing. Any way, I just wanted to make sure you understand where I believe the highest probabilities truly are. All my best.
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