We've had some very large red spikes this morning in volume, it's strange to see it occur mid-morning, heavy volume on the open is to be expected with limit orders and such being filled, but these are standing out as if some mid-level firm not connected to the boys club, is dumping in a dramatic way.
GLD will be an interesting trade to watch this a.m., don't just discount it as bullish on this gap up, the most wicked reversal starts with a big gap up.
UUP also saw interesting volume this a.m. and thus far refuses to make a lower low on what is already increasing volume.
Some interesting things that are out of character are afoot.
5 years ago
12 comments:
Whose buying is the big question and if it is the FED, and not the big boys playing the market; I am very concerned that we may be see this manipulation play out till the election. Does 3C take that long to play out? I wouldn't think so, but if the FED is playing us; who knows. This feels alot like last fall. I trust what the indicator is suppose to do, but I don't rust our Gov't not to get in the way.
on a stock, no. An index, yes it can take awhile, but the levels it's at are what I see near the end or at the end.
I may sound negative, but read that more as frustration. I've been trying to keep my finger off the unload button as I am at my risk level. Knowing we are probably close, is the only thing that keeps me going in the direction. Let's hope this doesn't keep derailing our position.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York purchased $1.379 billion in Treasury debt maturing from 2012 to 2013 on Thursday, part of officials' pledge to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and housing agency debt back into the bond market to support the economic recovery. Dealers offered to sell the Fed $30.162 billion in debt. After the results, the broader bond market remained lower, pushing yields up. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes , which move inversely to prices, rose 4 basis points to 2.76%.
Just came across the wire, hope that money has already reached the market this morning. I find it interesting that the PD's wanted to sell $30 billion and only $1.3 billion was purchased. They could of purchased up to $3 billion if you were to figure the total to be purchased over the next month divided by the 9 reverse auctions. Some say their is a lot of dissent in the FED and myabe the inflation #'s this morning are making them rethink their positions.
I hear you Jack, that's why I've posted some short term poppers. However, it takes tie for a top to unfold. Looking back you can see it on past charts, but past charts can't account for the emotional feelings of sitting there 12 hours a day for each bar. However if you look back to former declines, especially the 2007-2008 period, you'll see there's nothing too unusual about what we are seeing.
Agree, Top will take time but as we have seen with C3 longer time frame divergence will eventualy have the market follow their lead.
That's one thing I can say Q.S. this indicator has the least failures of any I've seen, short term divergences aren't big investments, they are easy to run over, but the longer ones like I've posted recently are pretty darn solid. I need to write more about it so people better understand. What we are doing here is very unique and it probably requires a different approach in everything. Maybe this weekend.
I agree. One thing to consider though is the use of our tripple inverse core ETFs. These get killed from slippage and have been hurt bad even though the market down. It is something to keep in mind when buying. If you held these as your core shorts from your recommendation back in June you are hurting badly right now.
Agreed, and if I can help to create a system to get a better timing let me know. It might be a combination of a couple different indicators.
Q.S. Yes, however I've also mentioned their problems many times (leverage+compounding+volatile choppy markets=losses) and the benefits and problems of real shorts. I recommend a mix and 25% cash to play bounces and hedge.
There's two guys I advise, one has significantly more in the market and the other has about 60k, the one with over 350k has been holding a lot (more then I'd like) inverse like FAZ, EDZ, etc. We do see about 20+k drawdown on a rally like this, but on the declines we're always back in the green. We need the break to really make $. However you do raise a good point. We have an awesome edge, but it's a totally different method of trading and I think I've not spent enough time thinking through the optimization of entries, exits, position sizes-I have thought about the stops and risk management, but I suspect (as it's kind of the boring part of trading) that a lot of people in general don't have a comprehensive risk management plan and no matter what edge 3C gives, there's nothing in the market that is more important then R.M.
Remember during the oil rally that young 33 year old trader who was the wizard of oil, making huge trades and huge profits, then he took his entire company down with some bad trades. It turned out he used no risk management and the company had no risk management oversight department. From wizard to poster child for the "fall from grace"
All great points and something to def think about!
Yes, we are not retail investors, we are acting more like institutional, EXCEPT we don't have the knowledge of the big picture, it requires a total shift in thinking. We're something in between.
I think if we take what we have, compare to other indicators from past trades (history) we might find something that gives a sharper edge for entry and exit. It seems that their is some delay from the longer time frames and maybe that time frames is consistent over many trades. We are still talking about human emotion regardless if it is greed or fear. The only thing we can't predict is the unknown news, that is where or risk really needs to be watched.
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