10 are headed in the right direction and a few already at pretty significant gains.
JNPR, AAPL, SNDK, HPQ, CSCO, OVTI (-5.3% today), CAVM, ISRG, DECK, and the one long GOK (up 4.5% today).
The others are still looking good as well so I'd keep them on your radar. If you have specific questions about any of these trades, feel free to email me.
Market Update:
The Ascending Wedge from this morning's update I mentioned seems to be well on its way to retracing its base. That is just an initial target for the pattern itself. It is worth noting, if you care to look at the chart, around 11:33 there was a small head fake to the upside, it's in scale with the pattern. Again, these are the games Wall Street plays now. According to conventional technical analysis, the pattern should just break down, but we are seeing these obvious patterns with increasing frequency, put in a head fake which is all part of the Judo Concept. The head fake draws in the longs, thinking the bearish wedge has failed and soon they are at a loss as prices move lower. They start selling, increasing the supply side of the supply/demand dynamic and prices head lower.
By now it probably seems like a mainstream concept to you as I mention it so often, but I tell you, it is not. You are a group of a few people who understand this. This is the reason it keeps working.
3C is largely in-line with the sell-off with a couple of versions nearing leading negative divergences.
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Risk Management
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- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
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- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
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- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
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3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
4 comments:
Hi Brandt,
Based on the 'hang-man' chart indicator seem a few days ago. What do we need to see today in terms of a closing price to confirm we are on track for a reversal downwards? A lower closing price? A flat closing price? A positive closing price below X on SPY?
Well if it closed right where it is now it would form a second downside reversal set up, this is not uncommon in candlestick charting, the first signal is showing the weakness, the second signal is the signal. In terms of what I'd love to see for solid confirmation, a close below $110 but Friday's just don't seem to be good downside reversal days as of late. Our two last major reversals came on a Monday and Wednesday.
I will say that the number of short trades that look good out there and the number of them from last night that are already showing a profit into a higher market says something. An index is not too hard to manipulate given you hit the stocks with the heaviest weighting. I'm actually going to be working on an indicator this weekend based on that concept, kind of a cross between an advance decline line and the weighting factor thrown in. We have 2/3s of the stocks from last night, at last check, which were shorts all working and they were pretty big companies, yet the market is up. If I were long right now, I would not be comfortable at all.
Hello BRANDT. You said that the head fake which is all part of the Judo Concept only a FEW group of people know.
Like I said before BRANDT and like YOU explained to us MANY times. The MARKET and in LIFE, when some one WINS, then some else has to LOSE! Just like the concept of the Universe Nothing NEW is created, it just changes states.
My point is BRANDT, if EVERYBODY knew YOUR logic and ideas, then the MAJORITY of people would NOT be fooled and the MAJORITY would make money. The that would mean the POWERS that be, would NOT make MONEY. Then they would SURLY (CHANGE) their games to fool even YOU and your CHARTS.
If every one knew YOUR trade secrets, then THEY would CHANGE it. If LESS people that are FOOLED, like the way THEY use the (TECHNICAL) Chart analysis against traders. Then THEY would CHANGE their tactics because MORE people would see the ACCUMULATION and DISTRIBUTION, and then THEY would change or hide their trades.
So my QUESTION is. Is it wise to tell ***(EVERY BODY about this SITE)*** or YOUR secrets? IF the BIG BOYS really found about this, would THEY CHANGE the ACCUMULATION and DISTRIBUTION patterns enough that even YOU and your CHARTS could NOT see what was going on?
You said that the head fake which is all part of the Judo Concept only a FEW group of people know.
*****(Isn't THIS a GOOD thing for US that have the KNOWLEDGE?)******
Like YOU explained to us MANY times. The MARKET and in LIFE, ****(when some one WINS, then some else HAS to LOSE!)****. The universal concept of ENERGY and MATTER. I HATE to sound GREEDY or SELFISH, but we have to look out for ourselves!
The theory of what you are saying is 100% correct, however, I'm a small fish and I'm not changing anything for the big boys unless I were to write a best selling book, which is not what I'd like to do. I'd ultimately like to run a small fund one day and use what I know. Most of the proceeds would go to charities. I'm a proud member of the "4 Kids of South Florida" development council. I'd contribute to charities and people who just need help. I don't need to become a millionaire. So right now I'm off their radar. The WOWS site, since it is through GOOGLE has a limit of 100 private readers. For me to make this job worthwhile, you know how many hours I put in, I would like to get it to that number. Truly to give you all the personalized attention that I give, I caould not handle any more then that and it might give me a chance to hire someone to help on the administrative side. You can do the math, but with Paypal deductions and other costs and time, especially hiring someone clerical to take some of the burden off me, it's not much money. So I'd like to cap it at that and the people who are really serious about their future are the ones I think will be the core group of subscribers.
On another note, Technical analysis is so embedded, to a vast majority of people, I sound like a paranoid kook. My TG site isn't that big compared to others who started long after me. So in the big picture, I don't think Wall Street is going to change everything they do to throw off a group of 100 small time traders, we're just not relevant to them.
If I can get my fund running, then I can help about the same number of people-99 and nothing gets said, I just hopefully would outperform the majority of Hedge funds, but they wouldn't know how.
believe me, I considered this a long time ago and this is why I chose to go with the GOOGLE site instead of creating my own which could support unlimited membership. IF I really needed to expand for financial reasons, then I'd probably just give out trades and not go into educating people and not take email questions or severely limit them to 1 or two per week. I know who has been with me and I'm a pretty loyal person. The sooner I can fill the site, the better it is for all involved. And still, with expenses, you can do the math, I'm not making a killing. I don't do it for that reason, I do it for my love of what I do. Trade Guild has been free for nearly 5 years as well as the hundreds of videos at YouTube. If I'm going to really fulfill my dreams, it will be managing money of some sort, fund or not and helping those in need. I'd think I would keep WOWS active, but I'd hope that you all continue to learn for yourselves as I show you these things each day. Maybe you'll develop indicators and insights and I'll be your student. In a way, I already am and proud of it.
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