Friday, September 10, 2010

SILVER-SLV

I had an email question about Silver, so I thought I'd share it with all. Market update is coming soon, but we have a 3C reversal signal.

Point A shows a clear long range channel SLV traded in and then an upside breakout. These are always suspicious to see extraordinary volatility in a stable trend, it turned out to be a false breakout, you can see the Judo Concept as it heads down-note the volume at each point as well. Point B we have a downside breakout, this is what you'd normally expect. Typically there is one more rally to the breakdown point and the issue falls, not in this case though, so another false breakout. Point "C" is the area I just mentioned-it's called "Kissing the trend goodbye". At point "D" a big triangle consolidation formed, usually when they are this big they function as tops or after a long downtrend, as bottoms. The volume fell in the pattern as it should and then it broke out on increasing volume-thus far bullish-that was point E.
This is a 15 min 3C of the breakout, there's accumulation right before it so smart money wanted this breakout, they then sold into higher prices at the red arrow.
Both long term 3C charts here, the blue is very long, show that smart money has been moving slowly out of the trade. They probably had a huge position and needed the upside breakout to create the demand needed to exit the rest of their position. Each 3C is written totally differently so I don't get the same results, I want confirmation and the general trend gives me that, but they will look differently as they count accumulation/distribution in different time intervals.
This hourly chart is a faster version then the rest, thus shows a blend of what happened. That's a difficult concept to understand, that smart money can be in short term accumulation for a breakout like this, while long term distributing shares, you have to understand that for the charts to make sense. But this shows the same thing, they supported the breakout and sold into it.

The verdict on Silver... It's selling off as well, not as long or intense as gold, but then again, Gold has a lot stronger bullish sentiment.

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