Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Different Perspective.

I was going to go on and show you more 3C charts of the market showing negative divergences. It's important you understand what a negative divergence in 3C is. A Negative divergence is showing the act of distribution, a positive divergence is showing the act of accumulation, IT IS NOT an immediate signal, but more like a breadth indicator on steroids as it tells you what is happening in the underlying action of the market.

Today, BULLISH move, no doubt, last night I warned there was accumulation. 3C does not tell you where, how much or when, it is impossible to know that unless you know exactly what the accumulators/distributors are doing, how many shares they have, at what rate per day are they buying/selling/shorting, etc. It's common sense. It does tell you that a day like today, which many retail traders bought, is not as strong as it looks, if it were, why then would there be big movements of money out of the positions into higher prices? Certainly not because they think it's going much higher, or that they'll have enough time to complete their transaction. There was a lot of retail demand today, making distribution easy.

So instead of going over breadth charts, which are not much changed in a day, or 3C SPY charts, I'm going to show you an interesting occurrence a member mentioned. The $USD. I mentioned a few days ago we are seeing some indications of a "change of character".

Understand that each sotck or component is read individually by 3C, there's no bleed over unless there's underlying action to suggest it.

So lets start with what a member mentioned, FAZ showing some late day strength.

 Here's an Envelope Channel, no bias of drawing trendlines, it is what it is. Look at the EOD today, FAZ trading higher and higher and breaks out of the channel at the close.
Here is my Trend Channel, it is set to 1 day, it stays short all day until the EOD, in the red square, it's long.


Here is FAZ, leveraged short financials
1 minute 3C Leading positive divergence
 5 minute 3C leading positive divergence
 10 minute 3C leading positive divergence.

Confirmation between each timeframe is difficult to get unless it's there, it's unlikely all 3 timeframes would by chance say the same thing.

Now, compare it to it's inverse counterpart, XLF Long financials. Again, there's no 3C correlation between two different stocks or timeframes unless one truly exists.

 XLF 1 minute, LEADING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE!
 XLF 5 minute LEADING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE
XLF 10-minute LEADING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE.

XLF IS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE OF FAZ, the chances of that happening in 6 timeframes and 2 different stocks is almost impossible.

Now, remember I told you that there's distribution in GLD and the Dollar is showing a "change in character"

So lets look at UUP the proxy for the dollar.
3C 1 minute LEADING POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

 5 minute LEADING POSITIVE DIVERGENCE-HUGE TOO

 UUP 30 MIN HUGE LEADING POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

15 minute POSITIVE LEADING DIVERGENCE.

In all 3 symbols, we are seeing the most powerful leading divergence. Can I explain the catalyst for strength in the dollar no. Could it be financials alone get taken down and the dollar is untouched, possible, but not likely. Why are we seeing what we are seeing, I believe there's something going on here that is causing smart money to distribute into higher prices, to accumulate short positions on financials and long the dollar.

Again this week, insider selling activity last week was 1411 share sold to every 1 bought. This week it is  2341 shares sold to every 1 bought.

Here's the article, read for yourself how much ORCL and GOOG are selling. Why? Because they think the market is going higher?

I hope this different perspective, will help you keep you mind open to the charts I'm showing you. When I show you 3C in a negative divergence and the stock moves higher, THAT IS THE MEANING OF DISTRIBUTION-they do not sell into declines, they sell into demand.

So lets see what happens with these charts, combined with last night's breadth charts, 3C's call for a move up today and other things such as insider selling, I think it's not wise to ignore these charts.

4 comments:

Quality Stocks said...

Thank you....One other thing to notice on this rally is all of the gaps we have left in the major indexs. On low volume melt ups those gaps get filled.

Alesund said...

Amen Brandt!

AC said...

Nice charts Brandt...from the degree of angst oiut there i feel the top is here or hereabouts (POMO not withstanding). Probably one early spike up and then a big "yours". As an aside, i have for 4 weeks i have had sell Limit orders at 1168 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement) on the S&P and 1.3890 (61.8% fibonacci retracement)on the Euro/USD. BTW, the Fed's (QE1) inspired melt up that ended on April 26 2010, traced out a 61.8% retracement of the huge 2008/early 09 drop.

Mr Pink said...

Tomorrows news:

Wednesday 6th

Spain industrial production (Aug) where we estimate that IP rebounded slightly to +0.2%mom after the -1.1% decline last month.

German manufacturing orders (Aug) We expect a rebound to +0.5% mom after -2,2% previously.

US ADP employment (Sep) Consensus is looking for a rise of +23k following -10k previously.

So, if 3C is showing accumulation in the $dollar, i would suspect that the EUR is going to take a hammering due to poor figures (the above) from Europe tomorrow and maybe good US ADP employment figures? Which should both support the $dollar.

Well, let's see how that plays out.