Since I'm of the opinion that conventional indicators are used against technicians, when I use them, I tend to use them in unconventional ways. For example, this MACD is set at 52/104/9 which better shows the trend without the noise and it's something that probably few if any other technicians are looking at. You can see it went up in confirmation of the trend and then went down in the H&S top pattern with a negative divergence. I think intraday it has some room to bounce a little, but when the trend line is broken to the downside, I would consider phasing into this short position. As it moves further away from the neckline and completes it's first lower low, lower high and starts down again, i would fill out the position as you then have confirmation that is pretty far out of reach of any black box manipulation. The first target is around $45, but the measured move implications often exceed the target more often then not. At that point you can re-evaluate whether you want to keep the short or use something like the stop channel to give you an objective stop out price.
10 comments:
So, er, Brandt, you said that you couldn't remember a time when the 'FED effect' didn't get reversed. Well, looks like, 2 days later, it ain't reversed, we still up at highs!
Seriously, i think i was now being generous when i said that 3C/Brandt was only right in their calls 10-20% of time.
You keep making the calls Brandt, and i'll keep track of their performance. And it ain't looking goo, it's looking absolutely terrible.
Here's a stat to shock ya: September and October has seen some of the best months for stock gains in history! If the SPY goes up another 20 points to 1240... then that will be 200 points on the SPY since the 'bounce' stated at 1040 (this ain't no bounce, who you kidding Brandt!?) and we missed out on it because the 'smart money' was selling into the 'bounce' from day one! 3C didn't even show a leading positive divergence going into the bounce! and 3C has shown distribution daily as the market has gone higher and higher and higher.
That's right, following 3C and you would have missed out on a 200 SPY move, a 1500 point DOW move, a $150 dollar move in gold, a 25%+ move in silver!
... and we are suppose to be the wolves!! SERIOUSLY, if we are following smart money then the smart ain't smart to have missed out on this once in a lifetime big moves in such a short period! and we suckers here, did the opposite to the trade we should have done and IT'S BURNT US BADLY.
How those poor suckers that went long on FAZ and VIX following 3C?
Another POMO day Monday. And we have an average of 3 POMOs per week for another 8 months!!!!!!!!!!!
Brandt,
Even your "the market is moving up because of it's close correlation with the EUR/USD" has failed today, USD up strong against the EUR, and the market is up at highs too...
... seriously. Which ever way you slice it, it ain't good trading based on the non-sense spouted here.
Here's another stat for you: out of the last 21 days of trading the SPY has gone up 18 of those days and down only 3. For a total gain of 60 SPY points, on top of the 120 point gain since the start of the 'bounce'.
Really Mr.Pink talk about pathetic, what I saw is not based on what you say I say. If you were to read the entire post of two paragraphs, then you would see that I wrote exactly this:
"Should the XLF fall, then the correlation between the dollar and the market should come back into play and be the primary driver of the market."
Really, come on!
Brandt,
What are you talking about, for the past few days/weeks, you've said that the market has purely gone up on the weakening dollar. It's lost 10%+ in 2-3 months!
So, no, not pathetic at all. Although i can see some performance stats here that are.
I'm just calling it as i see it. I wish it wasn't true, for my own wealths sake.
So when the facts of your complaint-my analysis for today- are not convenient for you, you change the subject.
Brandt,
No, i'm not saying anything specific about your analysis today.
If anything, i'm saying that it's another 'change the story' when things don't work out as planned. For days/week you've said the market is linked/highly correlated to the weakening dollar. Well, today shows that that isn't true. USD/EUR up strong, market up. Same with the 'FED effect' being reversed calls. Same with the 'this is the right shoulder being formed' on the markets, etc, etc.
I am not happy with the BIG loss I have on FAZ. I believe FAZ is now at historical lows. Short time frames show positive divergence but price is going no where. Do I stay in and follow this down to -0-?
Anonymous,
Those positive divergences you've seen in FAZ for a while just means that 2 rooks and 4 sparrows landed on Brandt's roof that is all. No correlation to real market action what so ever.
AND THE MARKETS HAVE JUST TURNED BLUE! FED affect reversed Brandt? Closely correlated to the EUR/USD Brandt? No.
No credibility means your/3C calls in the future cannot be trusted to be acted upon... it's as simple as that.
Mr. Pink
Another week of gains for the markets. Although the markets were flat today, FAZ is down nearly 6% with positive divergence most of the day. I closed my FAZ position after a 14.6% loss the past two days. I should have closed it a week ago, with a flat trade, when the week prior divergences did not move the price at all and then started down.
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