Friday, January 7, 2011

As Usual, the Devil is in the Details

NFP misses consensus, the unemployment rate drops...blah, blah, blah.

Headlines aside, here's what counts. This is the way unemployment was counted during the Great Recession, the much ignored U6 unemployment rate, which is the broadest measure.

It seemed to level off, now it's back on the rise.  U6 jumped from 16.3 to 16.6%. This represents 3 months of deterioration and the highest since July 2010.  but don't expect to see that information in the Headlines.

The average amount of time someone is unemployed also increased. Also the last reading, as usual was revised higher, a disturbing trend when one considers the revision rate which is almost always revised to a more negative number, not positive, so the data seems to be massaged for the release. The next release will most likely see a negative revision as the effect of the "seasonal adjustment" on NFP is highly questionable.

The bottom line remains, that nearly 1 in 5 are not making it according to U6 and the real detail that remains largely unaccounted for is how people who are employed are doing. Being employed is not always enough to make your bills, pay your mortgage and such. As I've talked about, in our own private experience-(our family cafe) no one working there is making the kind of money they made several year ago. Architects nearly making 6 digit salaries now forced to gather what they can for their families at minimum wage.

I really wish people would wake up, read the reports and understand that the headlines are always going to be massaged. Like I said, the devil is in the details and with the U6 rate edging up a 3rd consecutive month, despite QE2, there's a lot of people not making it and they are largely being ignored as the media hails the green shoots that are the headline numbers.

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