Monday, January 31, 2011

CHNG Trade Alert

This is a stock that I've been watching. There was a strange breakout from a bear pennant so I did not list this as a long but kept it on my watchlist because of the strange behavior. I do not know if this is a black box manipulation of the triangle it broke out from, as is commonly the case with obvious patterns, but the charts below tells the rest of the story.

 As you can see, the triangle forms a large bear pennant. Then there's a breakout which forms a strange lateral consolidation, very suspicious looking.

3C hourly chart shows a positive divergence before the breakout so they wanted to break it out, but after that we see distribution into a lateral trend (often where distribution and accumulation are found). Right now in the red box we have a leading negative divergence. I'm not sure if you can get your hands on this one short or not, it is optionable, but I doubt there's to much activity. In any case, on the first chart I marked a red trendline that could serve as a swing trade stop. If you want to look at this as a longer trend trade, I'd suggest widening the stop and phasing into it, adding on any strength.

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