Wednesday, January 19, 2011

European Banks Back in the mix

I listed 4 or 5 European banks that look like good longer term short sales, with volatility being as high as it has been the stops were probably too tight for these types of trades. I think moving forward I'm going to have to adjust my Trend Channel settings to reflect risk on/risk off volatility especially as it pertains to the never ending risk on risk off cycles in Europe which are growing shorter every month.

In any case, these stocks are going to be worth a look at current valuations for at least a swing move so take a look at the January list of European stocks, I'll list them again in the morning and we'll see if there's any good swing setups as I feel it's likely we'll see at least a swing correction.

Originally these were 2011 theme stocks and really weren't meant as Swing trades, but until there's more clarity on whether the EU/ECB and specifically Germany are willing to expand facilities to deal with peripheral sovereign debt, these may need to be shorter in duration although I do think a longer term perspective may warrant a phased in position when we get overbought levels, little pieces at a time.

Furthermore, MUB here at home is going to warrant closer scrutiny as there seems to be little that can be done to bail out 47 states and hundreds of municipalities that are carrying overwhelmingly high levels of unfunded liabilities.  I believe the Fed has already stated the scope of the problem is outside their mandate, but they've increasingly taken on the role of self-appointed mandates. 2011 promises to be a year in which the sheets are pulled back on the Fed and in my opinion, the sooner the better.

Just recalling the bit in the December 14th minutes that stated the losses homeowners have accrued have been offset by the market's gains still makes me red in the face. I don't know a single person who's said the 50% losses they've suffered in their home's worth have been offset by their 401k. What a ridiculous statement to make and with that statement, the Fed's self appointed 3rd mandate has become clear. Perhaps their survey was heavily biased toward primary dealers?

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