Monday, February 28, 2011

JPM Faces 10,000 Legal Proceedings

And now they estimate another $4.5 billion in expenses on top of an undisclosed reserve that's been set up-who knows how much that is. JPM just disclosed this tonight so this is above and beyond the weekend posts on Bad News for Banks. Here's the article from WSJ.


One must wonder if there's a connection to the outcome of the silver short and if so, how that would be effected?


Here are the charts if you are interested in a JPM Short, I wouldn't be going long.
 In the red box we have a resistance gap, of course if this isn't filled, then we have an extremely bearish break-away gap.

 The 15 minute chart shows  a negative divergence from last week, one has to wonder if this is inside knowledge of tonight's disclosure being sold? At the white arrow we have a bounce/ accumulation consistent with the overall market.

 The trend channel set to 1 day held the uptrend until the red trendline, so it did very well in capturing the meat of the uptrend, now the rd box represents a short sale cover/stop.

This is a two day chart, I have two possible entries, one at the white line which is a short under $46.10 and the second would be taking out support and a higher probability of less volatility, that limit would be under $45.21


Trying to estimate a target is rough here as the legal action is unprecedented and who knows how many putbacks it could lead to and what the cost of the putbacks would be, but this is starting to look a lot like the initial stages of the banking crisis when they said at every opportunity, "We're confident we won't need to take anymore writedowns" just to take more writedowns.

In any case, there's a JPM trade idea for you.

Oh, by the way, the VIX descending wedge is looking a little different...
Remember that the VIX traditionally has an inverse relationship with the market.

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