Monday, February 28, 2011

Market Update Addendum

What I should have added was this, I think the market has begun the distribution cycle from the shares picked up at the white arrows or positive divergences/accumulation last week. That means that institutions are likely selling into higher prices now, which depending on how much they accumulated and today's volume, will determine when they've unloaded all of the inventory. Then they may and probably will go short so I'm a little edgy that we will see a black swan event and the market will just drop, that's why I've suggested using the strength to get your toes wet in shorts you like any way in the area. However, under normal circumstances, that distribution/shorting cycle can last a few more days.

This is a big shift in the market and it's becoming obvious to many people and when it's obvious, the market throws a monkey-wrench in the plans meaning something like a new high false breakout, but on the other hand we could see an overseas event that causes a black swan breakdown.

I've always taught my students to leave the first 10% of a new move to someone else, the risk is not commensurate with the gain, I'd rather take the less volatile 80% out of the middle. So just take that all into consideration. We are living in one of the most historic market periods ever, it will be written about a century from now just as 1929 was. So pat yourself on the back that you are still standing and understand that we are entering uncharted waters. We'll have to learn as we go along and adjust very quickly.

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