Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Market Update

Still looking at the Q's, since the last update, that break of support was a head fake which was accumulated as I thought it may be.


Here's the support I mentioned in the last update and the volume around it, in the red box is the head fake false breakdown which gives the upside a boost as shorts that jump in on a break of support are forced to cover when resistance (former support) is taken out on the upside as they are at a loss.

 Here's the 1 min QQQQ 3c chart showing a pullback early in the bounce, but....

The more important 5 min chart seems to suggest there's more upside to go and the pullback was exactly that. So now we watch for a series of higher highs/higher lows.

The DIA 1 min remains in line to slightly negative but the 5 min chart is showing a relative positive divergence between 12 -1 pm yesterday and the same today, suggesting there has been accumulation of the move down today. It's not as strong as the Q's reading, but it's there.

The SPY 1 minute is in line with a bias towards positive leading and the 5 min is strictly in line. If this keeps up, the 5 min chart should start to show positive divergences.

The Tick Index has let up significantly since the 1 pm-ish lows it put in and has been trending higher with occasional disruptions but nothing approaching the negative -1250 reading saw earlier. It seems that retail has capitulated in a sense on the short term or met margin calls. This leads to a loss of downside momentum and an opening for the bulls to carry the averages higher.

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