Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Saudi Arabia may not be next, but they're on the to do list

Facebook, it's being credited with revolutions across the middle east. Whether it deserves the credit it gets or whether it's just part of the machinery, remember the revolution in Egypt went on despite internet and Facebook outages, is a question of little consequence. However, March 20th has appeared on Facebook as the Day the revolution will hit Saudi Arabia, perhaps one of the most influential allies of the west left unmarred. The protesters have made their demands clear and if recent history is to be the judge, then we know a Monarchy as long lasting as the Saudi Monarchy fits the description of protesters ire, in a word, a "Kleptocracy". The overthrow of Saudi Arabia also happens to be the crown jewel of radical Islam's main objective. While dangers persist in the falling and fighting in each individual country, the bigger issue is what the radicals will do. Right now they need only to bide their time and concentrate on organizing. It won't be the most popular that wins, but the best organized. We see that even here in america politics. We know that they understand that as it was made clear when US troops went town to town in the initial invasion of Iraq, ready to set up provisional governments only to find that agents of Iran had already slipped into the Shiite towns and set up well functioning local governments, at first America thought this was great as it freed up resources, later not so great as it set up the logistical structure for insurgency. 

We know that the Muslim Brotherhood was joined very early in the Egyptian protests by an off-shhot of the brotherhood, Hamas. Armed Hamas militants slipped across the boarder into Egypt to link up with the MB to coordinate protests and to bring medical supplies, water and food to protesters, thus endearing them to the MB, an unknowingly to agents of Hamas. So as I have said since Mubarak fell, this is no where near the end, this is the beginning and not the new beginning that protesters imagine for themselves. In Egypt alone, the regime never changed, only Mubarak, the face of it changed and that was predetermined months before as he tried to sidestep the real regime-the military and install his son as successor. This was his undoing, the protests just provided cover for the military regime. So 6 months is not a long time, things won't change and the people will rise again most likely, but this time they'll understand who the regime is which will bring violent conflict between the military and the protesters. 

Gadhafi is already said to have bombed civilians and ordered and military officer executed who refuses to fire on civilians. The nature of the tribal factions in Libya presents a more pressing problem, one of all out civil war as there is no stable military regime, but fractured elements-Gadhafi understands this, thus he's making what seem to be insane moves, but he' preparing for what he knows is coming.

At some point when all of these countries are in transitional and weakened stages, the radicals will have their organizational structure together and will take advantage of the situation. Inflation and economics are the new tools to overthrowing dictators and they'll have learned that lesson well. Inflation brought down 2 governments and  3rd is falling this year, compare that to all of their terrorist efforts over decades-the results will not go unnoticed by the radical elements. We can already see what one government has done to Europe, just wait.

This isn't meant to be a new brief, it's meant to be a warning for some and a call to all to be ready to take the hard decisions that lie ahead for in them there will be obscene profits to be made. We've already seen them in just a weekend. 

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