Wednesday, February 23, 2011

USO Update

 Here at the red spike in volume (white arrow) you can see where short term traders had their stops hit en masse as this was a very obvious support zone. This is why in the risk management link and article I have linked for you at the top of the site, I encourage you to keep your stops AWAY from obvious patterns, support, resistance. It's too tempting of a target for HFT traders who are making money on the spread and volume rebates. Remember, they see the entire book of orders, not just the best bid or ask and they see orders you can't even in Total View. The yellow box shows price held up at the first of the two daily stops or support zones I marked out in the last USO update. It looks like there will be some volatility around this area, I DOUBT this will hold as the final pullback.

 The 1 min chart shows the negative divergence and the reversal off the afternoon highs, and now is showing a positive divergence at the first daily support zone (the top red trendline). REMEMBER, support and resistance are created by psychology and as such are NEVER to be viewed as an ABSOLUTE, they are zones. Imagine if you bought at the top support zone, price went up and then fell. You might say to yourself, we'll I'll get out if it reaches my price, but it doesn't quite reach it, you get a little scared because of news events and you sell. You haven't sold at an exact number, or your exact entry, but you did sell in the zone. All support and resistance is created in a similar manner, by human emotion.

 The 5 min chart suggests there's more downside

The hourly chart is stable and looks good.

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