Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Update- GDX

I'm going to update SLV, NEM and UUP but I saw something here in GDX and wanted to get it out to you.

 Here's GDX with a simple 50-day moving average, you can see it has interacted with price frequently and at some important areas. Note the current position of the 50-day moving average, this "Could" be an upside target on a big corrective move.

 If we draw one more trendline to look at this as a potentially larger top as there are volume indications that this may be the case, then GDX just hit a major support level, the volume at that support level may be confirming it is in fact an important level of support. While the longer term picture still looks like a top, this may form another right shoulder of a complex top. If so, the $58 level would be my guess by looking at this chart, it also is where that 50-day moving average is.

 60 min 3C shows quite a bit of positive divergences right at support and perhaps a false breakdown below support which would contribute to the volume as stops are hit. The red trendline with the two arrows is the price level you want to watch for a breakout, around $55.40 or so. If price fails below support, then we take another look, but right now, this seems to be the more immediate probability.

Again the 30 minute chart is showing positive 3C divergences like the 60 min did. At this point, I'd say the probability is an attempt at the 50 day moving average. At that point it may be worth a look for a short sale to at least support or perhaps even a break of it.

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