Friday, March 11, 2011

EOD Market Update

We are seeing a little distribution into that last price spike, I think there are some traders closing out positions before the weekend. As of now, I expect to see some early strength Monday, that may be it, it'll be difficult to say until we get there, but the distribution cycle isn't that heavy yet that I would say we are topped out for upside potential. This would put us close to our target and set up some good risk:reward positions with higher probabilities.

All in all, I'm happy with today's action as it confirms what we saw yesterday and expected for today. I think we are on the right path here-right behind smart money's footsteps.

USO still has some downside from what I see, this was expected. I do not expect that USO is done, I think there will be an opportunity to pick up shares on the cheap and rise them to new highs as MENA heats up again next week.

The Euro zone will be in the spotlight again next week, so despite today's dollar weakness, I think there are going to be some opportunities there as well.

Our inverse ETFs that we like so much should also be providing some excellent entries. Nothing has changed very much.

Yesterday al the talk was of the 55 day moving average being broken and how that was it for the market. I think yesterday and today's analysis just goes to show that you just can't be lazy and expect the things from the past to work under new market dynamics. It's about adjusting to the market, the market isn't coming to you.

In the near future, there will probably be some big adjustments that need to be made and judging by what I've seen on some very professional websites, it seems they still don't get it, they still haven't even caught up to what the HFTs were doing 3 months ago. I can't see how they'll survive the dynamics of an undermined market liquidity structure. As they say, "the early bird gets the worm." Just keep your mind open to new concepts and new ways of looking at the market. Study what you have seen and try to make sense of the accumulation / distribution cycle and how we can use that to forecast and get in early on good positions.

Most of all, make this your own. Think outside of the box or the book as it is, you can't do any worse then some of these high-end, popular websites that are spewing the same methodologies that were used in 1995.

Everyone have a great weekend. I'll try to get a more comprehensive post together for everyone. My brother is getting out of the hospital right now so I'm going to go over and see what I can do to help. Take Care!

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