Precious Metals Update

As you'll note, GLD is a much bigger top then the potential top in SLV, therefore, the breakout served as the false move and it is subject to less manipulation/volatility in my opinion.

The 10 min 3C chart is the first that really shows accumulation in GLD right after a minor capitulation event (where volume is large and red in the square). 

The 30 min chart shows the bigger picture despite today's recovery of the gap. It's approaching the triangle apex and that's an area where I'd watch for a reversal.

The 5 min chart is showing that a distribution cycle seems to be underway, that doesn't mean GLD can't climb higher to the target area I mentioned. A target just above the apex of that triangle would be most likely in my opinion.

SLV 

SLV's 30 min chart (the bigger picture) doesn't look as bad as GLD's, however, that doesn't mean this isn't a potential top. You have to remember how big GLD's pattern was, this is really the first price peak, whereas GLD had about 4. I think SLV will probably be settled one way or the other a bit quicker then GLD and it still isn't clear whether the downside in SLV is part of a correction or the failure of the breakout. There are some hints that the breakout has failed. For instance, I'd expect a little longer pullback in a normal, healthy correction, this seems to be more of a "top" volatility move meant to shake out traders.

SLV's 5 min shows both accumulation and a VERY recent negative divergence starting to form, so once again, this divergence does not mean that SLV won't move higher. It takes time to distribute accumulated shares without riving price down and even more time to do it into higher prices which is the ultimate goal of distribution.

The 1 min chart here is confirming what we are seeing on the 5 min, it looks a lot worse on the 1 min, but remember, this is where a new distributive move will start and if it is heavy enough, it will creep into the longer, more important time frames. At the 15 min chart we are usually close to a reversal.

As mentioned before, the "possible top" in SLV is not nearly as mature as GLD's, therefore it's subject to more volatility. Today's move would make institutional traders a lot of money as shorts would have piled in early on the downside gap, the higher SLV moves, the more the shorts are squeezed, the more the shorts are squeezed, the higher SLV moves. This is the snowball effect and it is the exact reason that institutional money sets up these false breakouts, especially in a chart like SLV where there are two thing 1) traders that are very committed to the idea of higher or lower silver, despite what the charts may say. This is almost a cultural phenomena and 2) confusion about whether this is a top or not. For instance, if this truly is a top, longs (not having anyway of knowing it's a top) would aggressively buy SLV on a recovery from a downside gap as we saw today. That kind of commitment is what allows the locals to set these volatility traps.