Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Market Update

 As I wrote yesterday around 2:45, we were seeing late afternoon strength (3C) build into the market and since the market didn't do much with it in the afternoon, I said,

 "So that brings us to afternoon trade and a trend I've been watching unfold wondering if it was going to spark an intraday move-it hasn't thus far, so I'm assuming that it's being coiled up under pressure for another move up tomorrow and why not? It's not at all out of character with the market's behavior, in fact it's  so increasingly common, you can just about assume and trad off the notion that it will happen. I'm talking about these volatility moves up and down that tend to be right before a reversal."


Thus far, that analysis has been correct so we are still in wait and watch mode as the title of the post I quoted above was, "Bounces are Scary" and the first sentence was "And they are meant to be".


So here's the current situation in the major averages.


 DIA 1 min showing some weakness, but there's not enough in the mid term timeframes right now to assume a reversal here. In that post yesterday, I included several possible upside targets before we see a reversal.

 The DIA 15 min today is still in confirmation of the move up today.

 Again the 1 min chart of the IWM is showing intraday weakness, which may be the start of something, but...

 The 15 min, while there's a small negative divergence, doesn't look that bad yet.

 Again the 1 min of the Q's this a.m. is showing weakness

 However the 15 min is pretty much in line with price, confirming the trend.

 The SPY 1 min is showing some recent weakness this afternoon

And it has the worst looking 10 min chart thus far, but that needs to worsen and carry over to the 15 minute chart before we can assume with any degree of certainty that a reversal of the correction is at hand. I believe in the post referenced at the top of this one, I had a potential upside target in the SPY of around $131/$132, there were some target area I also provided based of gap resistance that were more moderate, but until we see that deterioration, we must assume that the correction will continue. One thing to remember is that a correction can also be lateral, it doesn't have to be gains to the upside. Today's action in the SPY to me falls into the "lateral" category.

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