Middle East Contagion

We now have 4 days of protest in Syria, which was one of the first countries I recall to recognize the risk when Egypt's troubles started, the Syrian government immediately shut down the internet. Now, despite civilian casualties from the Syrian regime, protesters are still out in force.

Bahrain remains volatile.

Yemen is actually looking as if it may be the next Domino to fall as senior military leadership defected to the protesters side yesterday. This leaves long term leader of 30+ years, Saleh in a very tough situation. He can release his top trained troops, but they are counter-terrorism troops that have been trained by the US. This of course will be another problem for Washington, US trained troops and equipment killing Yemeni civilians.

Libya seems to be a foregone conclusion, or at least Gadhafi seems to be. I think Bahrain may be very dangerous because of religious divides, Libya because of tribal divides and Syria simply because of Iran.

One thing to watch for that may turn Libya into a total US nightmare, as rebels troops regain ground and start to advance under the umbrella of coalition protection, will be photos of atrocities they are likely to commit. It happens in all wars, but the rebels in Libya are rag tag group of civilians peppered with a few officers; there's no discipline, no command and control and if such an event were to occur, it would severely undermine the efforts in Libya and destroy the credibility of the rebels as Freedom Fighters.

Also watch for an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hamas. It seems that a new round of violence promises to grow in the region.