AAPL Update

Even at 12% of the NASDAQ (that's the guesstimate for AAPL's revised NASDAQ 100 weight), it's still the most influential stock in the NASDAQ 100. Lately AAPL's performance has been relatively weak.

 Here's AAPL vs the market (via SPY) and as you can see, AAPL has been trending down for about the last 7 days completely diverging from the broader market. I don't use the Q's as a comparison because of AAPL's effect on the Q's. This is what you'd call VERY poor relative strength. However 7 days is a bit of a long haul and could certainly be throwing AAPL into an oversold condition, it also happens to be at a support level which has shown support Monday, Tuesday (albeit on a false break below support, most likely to get a mini short squeeze for this morning's gap up) and has found some support again today in the $337.60 area, so relief bounce? Very possible, it doesn't change the picture too much for AAPL too much though. Should this level of support be broken, there's minor support at $335 and major support at $326. I suspect there will be some volatility around these levels, but ultimately I believe AAPL is heading for a test of $326 and ultimately I do think it will break below that level.

The bigger picture via a 30 min 3C chart. There's been distribution (whether in the form of selling or short selling) at all 3 reactionary tops. I say reactionary because AAPL is in at least a broader sub-intermediate down trend making lower highs and lower lows since the false breakout on 2/16. A move below $326 will make the 3rd reactionary lower low and put AAPL into a solid intermediate downtrend. I remain bearish on AAPL's bigger picture, even if it should bounce.

Being AAPL is a bellwether for the market, the action in AAPL should be checked on daily even if you have no intention of trading it.