Wednesday, April 6, 2011

I'm going to live!

The doctor didn't say that, but I'm pretty sure you can't die of herniated discs.

OK, to te market action, so far, this is what I suspected. Yesterday we had late day accumulation into a falling market which did not move the market up on a 1 min 3C chart. This usually means that they are accumulating for another reason and that was to take advantage and sell into this morning's gap up. A few things that led me to suspect this, the accumulation was an afternoon only on a 1 min chart, it didn't continue today, instead the market gapped up, so in essence, the relative size of the position was small. If the market continued down this a.m. with continued accumulation, I'd think they were accumulating for a bigger move, that wasn't the case.

Here are some charts of the SPY.

 Today's gap up could be the first component in a bearish engulfing candle, which is a reversal candle. If the market closes where I drew in the yellow portion of the candle (above the arrow on this daily chart) then we have our bearish candle/reversal signal, it's actually a confirmation as yesterday's shooting star-like candle is a reversal signal. So the first component is the gap up which is filled and fails, so far it's about filled.

 Here's the intraday action and once again, if we get a bad or lower close, then this mornings gap up was the typical false move we see before 85% of reversals. Note the heavy sell side volume.

 The 1 min chart failed at 10:45, right now there's a slight positive divergence which may alleviate an intraday oversold condition as we are close to support (yesterday's close).

 The 5 min chart has been nasty, it went negative at yesterday's highs and only late in the afternoon did we see 1 min accumulation, it never made it to the 5 min chart and the gap up was very negatively divergent as 3C didn't even try yo move up. Right now it's in a leading negative position.

The 10 min chart shows the same selling at yesterday's highs and again, no movement up today.

I'm a bit surprised SMH hasn't come down yet, we'll see though as the day is still young.

This looks like a classic set up to sell at higher prices and trap some bulls.

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