Dollar/Silver/USO

UUP 30 min, overall the trend in the dollar has been weak recently. In May we saw a cycle complete from accumulation (white) to distribution (red) to the very common "false breakout/head fake" that we see so frequently before   reversal (you can see it in the red box).

 It's still early so I'm using the 1 min chart on UUP, but it looks like the dollar wants to move higher intraday which would make some sense with the price action we are seeing across many different asset classes.

 Silver, theoretically/historically would suffer with a stronger dollar, this move in the dollar though if it materializes, is more of an intraday/counter trend correction. You can see SLV opened on a gap up which was not confirmed by 3C, but rather was at a negative divergence. Since then there's been a retracement of a portion of the downside move, but no positive divergence there, just confirmation (in green)

 SLV's hourly chart does appear that SLV has the potential accumulation for a more prolonged move, but as I said last week, the lack of consistency through multiple timeframes made it look like riding silver was going to be a bumpy ride.

PSLV seems to be in agreement that silver will see a correction fro this morning's gap up.

 USO also has that inverse relationship with the dollar. The breakout of the ascending triangle came on very unexceptional volume, not what you'd expect for a triangle or an inverse H&S, whichever way you choose to interpret the price pattern. This makes USO susceptible to short sellers so keep an eye on the support level around $40-$40.10 ($40 is where stops are likely piled sky high).

Here's that all so common head fake before a breakout, it's now a matter of determining whether this move up is real or a head fake, it didn't get off to a great start.

Although UUP's short term charts remain positively divergence, we haven't seen much price movement yet. A move up in the dollar should have some effect on commodities and equities as well as the PMs to an extent, of course all negative.