Tuesday, May 31, 2011

On the NUGT/ DUST Gold Miner Trading System

Here's what our signal looks like today...
If that Blue line crosses below the red, a long trade for DUST (an inverse ETF/Short on Gold miners) will be signaled for the open tomorrow. You can see how close the two moving averages are and the move in NUGT seems a bit extended, today's price candle thus far, doesn't help either.

Keep in mind if you want to take the signals from this system it is best to take all signals. There's a 3% stop order from where the stock opens on the day you make a trade. The overall 1 or 2% of portfolio position sizing still applies. It's probably also best to make the order size consistent among multiple trades. You may even want to consider this as its own little sub-portfolio.

Over the weekend I did some additional work and smoothed the indicator line a little which reduced false/failed trades by another 10% or so , (the current set up has 65% positive trades with a gain to loss ratio of 2.0 or 11 winners and 6 losers with the average winning trade at 7.52% and the average losing trade at 3.78%).

In effect, I gained a few more percent on the equity line to 76% and reduced the number of transactions so smaller portfolios will not be as impacted by transaction costs.

I'll let you know if there's a new signal after the close, the trade would be on the open tomorrow morning.

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