Bonds To Pullback?

Take a look at TLT...

 Here's the very typical bullish descending wedge that move into a lateral base, other examples can be found in DUG, EDZ, FXP just to name a few, but it's been a pretty common occurrence.  Here we see price approach the breakout level of the base in May/June, note the problems with RSI from late May to early June and then again after the DIP (RSI after the dip is lower then it was at resistance through June. A pullback from the initial contact with resistance isn't rare, but the volume on the advance after the pullback should have picked up substantially.

 A look with the 50 sma. If you look at this as a rounding bottom, the problems with volume right now are obvious.

 TLT (Bonds) largely have an inverse relationship with the market, typically they are a flight to safety play. You can see the relationship though is not on a 1:1 raton as the SPY (red) would be down around the red trendlne.

 The daily chart shows the negative divergence at the 2010 top and the positive divergence at the bottom, this is a long term base with good 3C support.

 However, the 60 min chart reveals some relative weakness, you can see distribution at resistance and on a relative basis, 3C is lower now then t should be compared to the white box at the left.

 The 15 min chart shows more detail and you can see the negative divergence that caused the dip and a current negative divergence at resistance.

The 1 min chart shows detail of the last few days, a negative divergence at resistance and several on attempted moves higher on the way down. Currently TLT is in a negative divergence. Taken with the 15 min divergent, this looks to be a pretty good timing signal, the only other  thing we could ask for as far as timing signals go would be an upside false breakout.

The obvious play here would be TBT (Ultrashort 20 year). As of now, I view this as more of a swing trade then a long term trend problem, but we'll see how it plays out.