Thursday, July 14, 2011

As for the market...

I showed you most of the 3C charts, the only thing of note toward the close was a 1 min positive 3C divergence in the SPY, a 1 and 5 min positive divergence in the DIA and a pretty nice looking 1 min positive divergence in the Q's that lasted for about 3 hours, all of which suggest some early strength tomorrow.

You saw the options chain and know my opinion as far as the rest of the week goes going in to Op-Ex on Friday.

As for Price/Volume relationships today, there was no single dominant relationship n the NYSE, however the Dow,  the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ 100 all had a dominant P/V relationship, it was Close Up/Volume down (16, 45 and 214 stocks respectively) and of course that's out of the 4 possible combinations. Close Up/ Volume Down is considered to be the most bearish of the 4 relationships, even though price closes up. It generally tells us that traders are backing away from higher prices, that was evident today by looking at a hart of the SPY.

Traders weren't keen on chasing prices higher. You know my opinion for the rest of the week and what I think comes after Op-Ex.

I think VXX pulls back earlier tomorrow, but I think it will present an opportunity, options would probably be my choice on VXX, although I haven't looked at the chain. We'll watch for a pullback and a positive divergence.

If we do get a pin on Friday, I would suspect we are probably in for some volatile chop tomorrow, so I'd be looking to use strength to short into in your favorite short positions. FSIN is definitely n the right area price wise, I'll be watching for the entry on that one.

The one thing that is playing the role of Monkey Wrench s the debt celling talks and the associated musings out of the ratings agencies-China's just put the US on a negative watch. I would think though that the opportunity to pin the market on OP-EX would be a strong incentive to keep the SPY around the $132-$132.50 mark at least by Friday's close.

Keep an eye on gold, the warning I gave on Tuesday showed some teeth today on an intraday basis.

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