Tuesday, July 12, 2011

CNQR Trade dea Follow Up

I brought you CNQR on July 1st as an idea

Let's take a look at where we are now.
 This weekly chart shows CNQR since breaking out in 2009, trading in a solid, well defined uptrend. There's obviously been a recent change of character this year and these are the kind of observations that lead to great opportunities. It's good to step back from the daily noise and take a look at the big picture, I often use weekly, 9-day and monthly charts to determine whether a stock s exhibiting abnormal behavior that might otherwise go unnoticed on a daily chart.

 When I mentioned the trade July 1st, I said it would be nice to short CNQR into strength and had a target zone of $53, on July 7th we fell just $.29 of that, but certainly close enough, especially considering some of the broader market implications at the time.

 Today you can see the trend's back (thus far) is broken, with a high today below the white signal candle's low.

 Here's the hourly 3C chart

 Here's the 1 min, so we may see some bounce which would be welcome for entering a short position in CNQR.

This is a 50-bar moving average on a 60 min chart and a possible target area for a bounce around $50.50. It's just a rough guesstimate, but it would make for a decent area to look in to opening a position.

Depending on your risk appetite and trading style, you may even want to get your toes wet in this area, as you can always add to the position. I'm not a believer in dollar cost averaging either on short or long positions as a way to try to better a bad situation, but if it is planned for in advance in your risk management, that's a different story, it's a tactical plan, not an emotional reaction. Also I like the idea of adding to trades that are moving in your favor, the opposite of adding to trades that are moving against you.

Email me anytime for an update on CNQR.

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