Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Nice move in Gold

But can it be trusted?

I wouldn't be chasing it here.

 The daily chart looks solid, a breakout above the consolidation, a strong move, heavy volume, it looks really good.

 The 60 min chart had some accumulation after the break below the consolidation, but negative divergences already started peeking out.

 The 15 min chart is negative as of now, it could climb in to confirmation as it is yet to turn down.

 The 5 min is showing a negative divergence on the new high

 As is the 1 min.

The green volume spike makes sense as it's breaking above yesterday's close, the two red volume spikes don't seem to fit in the picture. I'm not going to jump to conclusions, but I will throw a possibility out,
a lot of traders chase momentum by running volume surge scans all day long. I've often said that to go from a base to stage 2 "mark-up", you need volume to advertise the stock s entering mark up. It is possible this is a bait and switch or head fake. I'm not aware of anything that would send gold higher today, except it was making highs relative to the euro in the European session, but that has to do with the value of the Euro vs. the dollar as gold is priced in dollars.

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