The market -The Real Market

So we are moving back up a bit, basically I think it's on news that Obama will consider a 2-day extension on a short term deal.


However, does anyone find it strange that short term accumulation in the IWM and then the SPY preceded this announcement  by as far as I can tell, at least 90 minutes in the IWM and about the same in the SPY?

I personally don't think 3C would work very well if it were not for Wall Street quietly acting on non-public information while the masses are focused on negative price action.

I hearken back to the home builders accumulation during the 200o tech bear market. First of all, I think most everyone thought the next bull market would again be led by advances in Tech, secondly, there hasn't been much of a historical precedent for a housing boom leading a bull market. Housing typically appreciated by low single digits or so in most areas. So was it a lucky guess? If it were, they were sure darn committed to the guess.

Take a look at HOV during the 2000 bear.

 HOV weekly accumulation. I've studied this period extensively, I use the weekly chart for convenience.

 Here's HOV vs. the NASDAQ 100 in 2000, the yellow area is HOV's accumulation zone of nearly a year.

 Here's the decline in the NASDAQ 100- nearly 83%

And HOV's climb, 2482%

I'd say someone had some pretty good information about the housing boom that took off in 2003. Some suggest that Fed policy was more or less a gift to the banks regarding housing to make up for losses during the tech meltdown.

A year or so of solid accumulation in housing, way before anyone knew housing was gong to prop up the entire economy through the last bull market? Unlikely it was a lucky guess or superior analysis.