In this post a couple of nights ago, I outlined and summarized why I've been bearish. I made the case that Quantitative easing was little more then a golden parachute for the insiders at major corporations and did nothing for the economy. Now we see the Q1 revision a mere half a point away from a recessionary quarter, and this is while QE2 was in effect.
Here's the GDP trend
Only Q1 of 2009 hit 5% and that was revised lower, you can see the trend after revisions. In fact Q1 may be even worse after the next revision, Q2 will certainly be worse and the trend is likely to continue down. In fact, with revisions, we may find out that Q1 and Q2 were both running below zero and two consecutive quarters of sub 0 GDP=recession. As for Quantitative Easing, I think this chart speaks for itself.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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