Monday, October 17, 2011

ES @ the Close

 ES 1 min this is today's action, a few smaller divergences, near the end we had a leading positive, that bounced a bit, went negative and currently a 1 min relative positive divergence. I would expect to see overnight upside.



 ES 5 min This is a bit longer perspective with the futures turning down last night on a negative divergence, since then they traded in line with price (green arrow) and posted a relative positive divergence, however that is within the context of a leading negative divergence as 3C is now lower then readings at previous price points, such as where the white arrow/box are last Thursday during market hours.


 ES 15 min has a longer term negative divergence, with a relative positive divergence today being formed.


 ES 30 min This is just about the entire trend up and the first really serious 30 min divergence which is leading negative.


ES 60 min Also showing the first really serious divergence, leading negative and in 1 day.

We are at an area on the EUR/$USD chart which has several support zones nearby, I don't expect them to just rollover without volatility, unless something very negative comes out or perceptions change for the worse very dramatically. Otherwise, I'd expect some lingering in the area and some bounces off the support levels.

I've been meaning to check the EUR/USD trendline, as you can see by the linear regression channel, it has been broken on this hourly chart, MACD went negative, RSI failed to make a higher high at 10/12 and made a lower high at 10/14 and is currently under 50, which has served as a sell signal for me in other screens I've developed. However the support levels depicted on the chart above may serve to let FXE/Eur. kiss the channel good bye.

In after hours the EUR/USD broke intraday support from 2:40 p.m. at $1.3731, it will likely be tested.

As for Big Blue, they beat on EPS at $3.28 after consensus was lowered to $3.22. IBM missed on revenues by a slight amount, which is a first in my memory. They did lift year end EPS guidance from $13.25 to $13.35, but still are being taken to the woodshed down -3.94%.

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