Monday, October 17, 2011

FX-EUR/USD closed loop, closed?

I mentioned a few possibilities this weekend in explaining the EUR's strength and how it was trading nearly impervious to any bad news. I suggested that this weekend the algos for High Frequency Trading "may" being reprogrammed away from the legacy arbitrage of chasing EUR strength/Dollar weakness. There are some signs that may have happened, although there's no way to be sure. I also said that watching 3C and the EUR would be crucial.

 Here we see the EUR/USD trading up on this 1 min chart.

 Here's the SPY in green vs the Euro in red and the former correlation that was so strong, at least in this small data series, seems to now be different, this isn't big time confirmation, but 1 small signal as the EUR trades up on some intraday strength and the SPY trades down rather then shadowing the EUR.

 Here's a Euro/FXE 1 min chart showing an intraday positive divergence that should lead to some more upside in the EUR on this move as it is a leading positive divergence.

 However, the same 1 min chart of ES is trading in line, not showing anything near a leading positive divergence, so this may be evidence of algos reprogrammed over the weekend as chasing the melt-up certainly would have raised their risk profile, especially if the melt-up in the EUR wasn't based on any fundamental strength, but rather a repatriation of foreign capital-that could have or could lead to a very risky situation for HFTs thAt are run by computers that have been chasing the Euro for seemingly , ALL THE WRONG REASONS.

 FXE /EURO 2 MIN CHART IS NEGATIVE OVER THE LONGER PICTURE AND LEADING NEGATIVE TODAY, BUT THERE IS A RELATIVE POSITIVE DIVERGENCE. Sorry about the caps, I'm not yelling!

 FXE/EUR 5 min is about in line today, with the longer term negative divergence in place.

 The important 15 min chart which went from a positive divergence starting the rally, to confirmation of the rally (green arrows) to a current negative relative and starting a negative leading divergence. This may be an important turning point for the Euro.

 The Dollar index/UUP is showing a 5 min positive divergence, which is significantly different from the FXE 5 min chart which is in line.

UUP 10 min leading positive.

The 15 min is also positive.

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