Monday, October 17, 2011

USO/ERY

USO has done generally what it should have, although there are several charts that I don't understand, whether this is a change in algo programming or whether there are fundamental issues in supply or perhaps it's something altogether different or perhaps nothing at all. It just looks a bit different then I would expect.
 USO (green) vs FXE/Euro (red). USO has tumbled on a stronger dollar as it should, it too is showing some signs of not trading in lockstep with the Euro/Dollar which may be reprogramming of HFT models or in this case, USO/Crude is showing a bit more resiliency compared to the currencies, so there may be an underlying fundamental issue of supply or political tensions, or as I said, it may just be nothing, but I am not surprised to see the perfect correlation broken, I am surprised that the breaks in correlation favor strength rather then weakness. On the other hand, this is a 1 min chart and this may be trying a little too hard or what I call, "getting lost in the lines".

 USO 1 min 3C shows a positive divergence on the gap down open, which it rallied from and then went negative, but it is still more or less in line with price.

 The 2 min chart shows the same, so 3C did an excellent job of picking up on intraday accumulation on the gap lower. Perhaps the gap will be filled up to the $33.81 area?

 USO 5 min showing Friday's negative divergence, but some positive strength today in to falling prices, again a bit surprising.

 USO 15 min, picking up from accumulation kicking off higher prices to a relative negative divergence now, gain, not as strong on the negative side as I would have suspected.

ERY-Energy Bear ETF 3x leveraged.
 This may not be the best comparison as it is not crude, but energy more broadly, but I had a request for the chart. 1 min overall, a positive divergence at the lows.

 ERY 2 min several positive divergences following a distribution event on Oct. 3-4.

 ERY 5 min, a longer view, including the early Oct. distribution and a leading positive divergence currently near the price lows.

The 10 min chart is just seeing that 5 min strength bleed over with an at least 5 day relative positive divergence, it may be more, this is all the history I have for this timeframe.

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