Friday, October 14, 2011

GLD Update

 As many of you know, I have been talking about an opportunity to buy GLD that only comes around a few times a year, that is a pullback to the 150 day moving average. This time unlike other times over the past year or two, GLD was taken down pretty hard to the 150 m.a. and as such, I said that I think it is best if GLD consolidates along that moving average for several weeks, being the way it arrived at the average was a steep plunge. The declining volume is a sign of a consolidation, however recently it has pulled up and away from the m.a. which is not something I'd prefer to see until GLD is healthy enough to make a run higher.

 GLD 1 min 3C chart -Some recent updates I've noted GLD pulling a bit too far away from the long term moving average and showed a negative divergence suggesting it would fall a bit, which it did at the orange arrow, however not for long as accumulation started and it has moved higher today-it doesn't know if it wants to move as a flight to safety trade or as a week dollar trade, it keeps moving back and worth. Today's price action has run into some resistance and there has been a negative divergence on that.


 GLD 2 min 3C chart the 2 min chart shows the same accumulation as above from yesterday morning and a negative divergence today, which is slight really.


 GLD 5 min 3C chart Here we see the negative divergence suggesting the pullback we saw yesterday and today again it's a bit negative,


 GLD 10 min 3C chart This hart remains negative as long as it is away from the moving average.


 GLD 15 min 3C chart the red line is the moving average area and we see a leading positive divergence here, not quite as strong as the one that lifted prices from the near lows.


GLD 60 min 3C chart-The hourly looks a lot like a consolidation, however, the more it pulls away from the moving average, the more apparent distribution we see. For a healthy consolidation, we want to see accumulation here and I don't think we see that in strong measure while it is off the 150 day average.

No comments: