Friday, October 14, 2011

GOOG

I've been keeping an eye on this all day and wanted to give it a chance so I waited until the close, this is very surprising activity in GOOG.

 This is the 1 min 3C chart for GOOG, this , at least on the 1 min timeframe, should have raced up to confirm GOOG's price and been in the same area as price. Typically this will happen in the first hour of trade, even if there's distribution on other timeframes, confirmation of the high on a 1 min chart almost always happens or gets very close. Not only did it not happen, but look at the depth chart below which is sort of a MACD for 3C as you will se with very shallow readings or troughs in accumulation areas and very deep readings or crests in distribution areas.

 I checked other charts to see if any confirmed, just very deep readings on the 3C depth chart. Below is an example.

 I included the S&P-500 in blue below for timeframe reference, you can click on the chart for a larger view. Notice when the market broke down and moved much lower, GOOG also made a move lower, the depth chart is marked with red arrows at distribution/reversal points and green arrows at accumulation/reversal points. You can see the deeper the crest and longer it persists, the bigger the move down, conversely at accumulation points, the shallower the trough and longer lasting, the bigger the resulting rally. The October rally was the biggest rally on the chart (the last green arrow to the right). In the middle of the chart, you can see small accumulation zones that caused bounces, note how they are not as shallow as the bigger moves. So hopefully you get a feel for how this works. Then look at how deep the crest was in a 1 day jump today, nearly the same as the distribution at the July 25th top and the rally that led to that top was a 31% rally, this latest October rally was only 19%.

 Here's a close up view of the 15 min chart / October rally. Note the 3C leading positive divergence and the very shallow depth chart. Today that same 15 min chart went down and no matter what time frame I use, there was a huge jump in the 3C depth chart today.

 This blue version of 3C is not the appropriate version for GOOG, but it is the fastest hart to move, yet again, even on a 1 min timeframe, there wasn't even an attempt at confirmation and again the depth chart jumped.

It will be interesting to watch GOOG next week, this looks very much like a sell the news event.

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