Monday, November 21, 2011

Credit/ Model Portfolio

Few major changes, but a few...
 The Euro, while it saw a huge move on no news today, leading some to speculate that the ECB may have intervened directly in the currency markets rather then with bonds on the secondary market, still there is a divergence as the Euro heads down from intraday highs and the S&P heads up from intraday lows, creating a dislocation.

 Financials, which early on were starting to show a little better performance have spent the afternoon running in the other direction, again creating a dislocation and suggesting the S&P/Market are being artificially moved, perhaps to try to fill the gap?

And while High Yield Credit didn't see a massive sell-off today, it did not perform like the market, it did not break above afternoon resistance at the red trendline and the difference between the S&P and credit markets, which lead equities) is becoming more apparent as we moved toward the close, once again suggesting we may get an opportunity to sell the market short on a dislocation and false or manipulated move. Here's to hoping!

It's been a tough month for the WOWS model portfolio, many of you have written me asking if I have capitulated on any of the short positions as the October rally was tough on them. I have not changed 1 single position and as I have explained individually in emails and collectively on the site, I have had enough experience with 3C and have been in much worse spots, but I trust my indicator, so even as price moved against my positions for a variety of reasons, I held tight and the model portfolio is in the green, but off the high water mark, however a few more days of market action like we have seen recently and I expect that the model portfolio will surpass the high water mark and be on track for a 200% gain since inception less then 4 month ago.

This week/month has been very good as the core positions that I have had faith in are performing well.

  A 23% return last week and a nearly 51% return for the month thus far.

This puts the weekly performance of the Model Portfolio in the top .0025% of over 5200 portfolios

The monthly performance puts the Model Portfolio in the top .0023% of nearly 18,000 portfolios.

I'll have more for you shortly. It may be time to start looking again at individual stock picks.

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