Wednesday, November 30, 2011

CREDIT/RISK Indicators

These are all zoomed so you can see today's action, in earlier posts you can see that many or most are much lower then the market and thus already dislocated, the end of day rally is interesting with these indicators.

 Here's one of the most interesting charts especially at the EOD ramp, credit went the exact opposite direction as the S&P ramped in to the close, which I usually suspect is to cement longs in place and get retail that comes home from work to enter long orders and thus becomes a set up. If there was some real risk on reason for the ramp, credit would have moved up, at bare minimum stayed flat, but not move to the lows of the range.

 You can see just how disconnected and emotional the market is today by looking at the normally near perfect correlation between the EUR/USD, the Euro should be the one rallying after today's announcement, instead it leaked lower all day and at the EOD ramp.

 Rates, same story.

 Financials did see good momentum toward the EOD and that may be because they are the most obvious short target as today's operation was not a EU fix, but a helping hand to banks in reducing the rate of interest they pay to borrow capital.

 Commodities which have been outperforming recently and which should be the beneficiary of today's policy intervention actually showed the worst crack all week, look at the difference in the afternoon trade, that's a divergence.

And that now put's commods in a dislocation.

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