Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Reality

I mention this every once in a while, but it's worth noting right now. Did you know that in a bear market, there are usually just as many up days as down days? Some times more!

Here's the comparison period in 2008 that I have shown to be very similar to now.

 This is from the point of breakdown, which we might say correlates to Friday-Monday of this week. This is a 5+% loss that you are viewing where all of the arrows are, but there are 11 up days in white and 8 down days in red, more up days then down days, yet the market still lost over 5% in this period.
What happened next?

This is a measurement from the equivalent of the Monday top to the bottom, a 50+% loss, yet note the counter trend rallies and probably more up days then down.

I mention this now just so everyone is realistic about how the market behave, even during one of the worst falls we have seen in the last few decades. Keep your eye on the trend and don't get lost in the lines.

I don't post this to say this is where we are heading, just to make a point about the reality of the market, nothing goes straight up or down. Like I said last night, to trade, you must b able to tolerate a certain amount of ambiguity, otherwise, everyone would win and the winnings would = ZERO.

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