USO Update

Several months ago USO was very difficult to get a read on, that seems to have reversed and USO seems to be one of the easier ETFs to get a read on, the reason? I believe that USO is reflecting sentiment regarding the Euro and a likely plunge in the Euro.

 USO and the important breakout level it crossed and then crossed back under. It is so far above, but we'll see where the close lands us as USO is strictly being driven by FX today.

 As we have seen a lot recently, USO is jumping ahead of the Euro in red and the Euro tends to be the leading indicator suggesting that USO will follow the EUR lower.

 The 1 min chart is showing distribution, notice there was no accumulation today at all, the entire drive was Euro/Dollar driven.

 The 15 min chart moved a bit, not enough to be in line intraday, but zoom out and...

 USO is showing what looks like a sloppy top, the accumulation for the this last rally is very similar to the SPY.

I know there are a lot of signals here, but they have been very accurate, white=accumulation, green=trend confirmation and red=distribution. USO is leading negative. I don't think USO will stay above that important trendline for long, but we can't ignore the very obvious, it is following the Euro as that is where the fundamentals of value are (via the dollar) and news is unpredictable at this point, but the fact that it looks this negative seems to suggest that there is a loss in faith of the Euro moving forward.