AAPL Update, still waiting for a bounce to add

AAPL longs are almost as hardcore as gold bugs, but what they don't understand is that until the NASDAQ re-weighted the NAS 100, AAPL represented nearly 20% of the NASDAQ-100's weight, which means if you took the bottom 50 NASDAQ stocks and combined them and added AAPL and called it the NASDAQ 51, the bottom 50 stocks could be down 2% on the day, if AAPL were up 3% on the day, the NASDAQ 51 would close up 1%, that's right, the weight of AAPL was the same as the bottom 50 NASDAQ stocks combined, which explains why the Primary dealers (after making billions in each POMO operation during QE 2) flipped money in to AAPL because it was the easiest way to move the average up and create what Bernakacide called in congressional testimony, "The wealth effect" vis-a-vis the market being higher, unfortunately 8 months of consecutive outflows meant that most regular Joes weren't in the market and the true nature of the POMO arrangement was to give banks some earnings (as you may remember many banks had quarters where they didn't have a single losing trading day), you might call it a sort of bank bail-out.

In any case, frothy money from the PD's is not the same as fund accumulation which truly supports a stock, and furthermore when QE2 was coming to a close, those same PD's pulled all of their money out knowing QE3 wasn't coming and therefore wasn't going to support asset prices anymore. This also means the high flyers like AAPL have the most to lose as they sit at lofty prices, but have little underlying support left. When the market flushes, it takes everyone with it.

So back to the AAPL short, a bounce would be great to add and given AAPL's weight on the NASDAQ 100 (which is unknown now unless you pay NASDAQ $10k for their formula) which is still likely very heavy. It's little wonder that AAPL's 3C chart looks a lot like the QQQ's

 Short term it looks like the middle men are stocking up (market makers/specialists, etc)

 The 15 min is similar to the QQQ, also note the flat price environment.

 However the bigger picture shows the daily chart in a leading negative divergence, just in time for the end of QE2.

Long term, AAPL has had good confirmation, but when we eliminate the noise of PD manipulation using POMO dollars, AAPL all of the sudden appears to be in the worst spot it has ever been in. That makes for a nice short, it's just timing on the entry.