Friday, December 16, 2011

VIX

The VIX hasn't been one of my favorite indicators, except back in the late 1990's it worked like a charm, it was revamped in 2003 and what was formerly the VIX is now the VXN, but it still has some utility, except during periods of Quantitative Easing when it was hitting multi-year lows and the market kept rallying (The VIX trades inversely to the market so lows in the VIX indicate complacency and usually a top or that's the idea and highs n the VIX indicate fear and usually a bottom.).

The funny thing about the vix is it isn't moving much as the market has been down, traders don't have a lot of fear and likely because they expect the typical Santa Claus rally which should have started by now.

Here's the VIX and it's still in "sell" territory.
The last time the VIX was sub 25 the market started to rollover, even with the market rolling over, it remains sub-25, a sell signal and an odd one as traders should be hedging, again I think the belief in Santa is so embedded in to the market, that traders simply take it for granted.

Don't get me wrong, my positions are short and  want the market moving to new lows, but a couple of days of bounce would be great to set up new shorts or add to existing ones, the VIX so far just looks like Santa is loading up on lumps of coal for all those traders' stockings.

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