Well I was hoping we'd get an op-ex bounce today, it seems they are looking to pin the market around $122, which is strange because there wasn't much open interest in the area. However that doesn't mean the bounce idea is over.
The 5 min Euro is leading and accumulation almost always occurs in to a flat environment, if you think about why that is the case, it will make some sense on a few different levels.
The 15 min, while short in duration, is still leading and again, the price environment is pretty flat,
Here the DIA accumulates on a 2 min chart in a flat area.
And 2 15 min divergences, one moved the market higher the more recent one is still building, again in to flat price trade.
Look at the short term QQQ, again a flat price environment
And the 5 min has accumulated a few times, both flat areas
The same with the QQQ 15 min chart.
The 15 min chart is powerful for a swing reversal, but there isn't a long enough divergence to suggest a move beyond a bounce. However the extent of the divergence leading upward seems to suggest they are moving fast to accumulate in to flat, stable prices. This would lead me to believe early next week we bounce.
Remember we have 1 holiday on the 26th to observe X-mas, there will be window dressing, but because of the T=3 settlement rule, the funds need to move all their positions by the 27th, tax selling can go right up to the new year. Volume will be low so expect some decent volatility.
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