AMZN Trade Idea (Short)

It's probably pretty well known that I prefer to short stocks outside of tops and not in them. I feel the extra 10% or so you usually make is not worth the volatility and the opportunity cost, a trend is where the meat is and I'd much prefer taking 80% of the move then having the top and bottom 10% ties up for months in a volatile pattern.

So with ll of that said, AMZN is approaching the area in which it becomes a much less volatile, much higher probability and much lower opportunity cost trade.

 The weekly chart has broken down and looks great, as you can see, there's plenty of downside. MACD is also negative as you would expect.

 On a daily chart AMZN gapped down in the red box on increasing volume, that gap was never filled which makes it a somewhat rare, and very bearish breakaway gap. Tight now on the daily, there's 1 more level of support, but the fact the market looks like it does and AMZN hasn't been filling gaps leads me to believe there would be less volatility on a break of the trendline, in fact it may slice right through t, but any price strength would be a gift.

 The daily 3C chart is perfect, it goes from confirmation to distribution in the top to a leading negative divergence.

 All of the intraday charts confirm as well, 30 min

 15 min

 5 min

 Here's my crossover screen showing several long signals and a new short signal just the last few days.

The daily trend channel has held the short this entire time, the stop is around $197.

If we can get a bounce, that would be great, otherwise a slice through support would also make for a nice entry. The volatility is largely behind us and being a retailer, this is also an industry group that is on the floor as retail sales showed today.

I like the AMZN trade, but if you have questions specific to your trading style, feel free to email me any time.