Thursday, December 29, 2011

Market Update

For such a low volume market I'm surprised it is so listless, it's a bit annoying to watch. In any case, last update I was thinking the market may just be in a consolidation, it may be, there are a few signs that have changed a little.

 DIA 1 min is mostly in line with a slight lag.

 The 2 min is starting to deteriorate a bit.

 As is the 5 min.

 The QQQ 1 min which has been in line most of the day is starting to deteriorate.

 I'm not sure what to make of this 2 min chart, but it's not particularly positive.

 And the 5 min is starting to see some deterioration, this s the main difference as earlier the 5 min charts were in line.

 The SPY probably looks the most reasonable as the 1 min continues its weakness

 As does the 2 min like earlier, except a bit worse.

 Finally the 5 min hart is starting to see some of the 1/2 min chart weakness.

 However this sloppy, ascending like triangle may see a head fake in either direction at this point, if this is a consolidation then I would expect a downside head fake before a move higher (this still remains a short term correction as far as I can see as expected yesterday).

 ES 1 min which carries more weight then the ETF/Stock 1 min charts is falling apart a bit here as well, this is probably the most bearish of all the charts right now.

And again we have another FX triangle, we have seen 4 of these (3 small and 1 larger) that have all had upside head fake moves that fell apart, this is probably the chart that has me thinking we are still in a consolidation, but honestly today has been very slow, which means for me, it's the time to be the most vigilant.

I still think the Euro is leading this whole move. One thing is certain, the seasonal Santa Rally has not shown its head. The most crucial time would be between this past Tuesday and the first day or two of the New Year, but as far as Santa rallies go, they are generally well in to strength by this time.

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