PMs-GLD/SLV

I've been thinking GLD has been in a bubble top or an intermediate top ever since it hit the long term 150 day moving average that has been an excellent buy point over the last 3 years, I was cautious about saying, 'buy" even though we had been waiting for such a pullback, because of the volatility in GLD right before it pulled bak to the average. I warned members to wait and see if it can hold the 150 day (better to be safe then sorry) because of the way it moved to the 150 day average, which was much different then any of the previous pullbacks-how's that for a run-on sentence!

Silver has been manipulated since day 1 or at least for the last several years by JP Morgan who inherited the large short position from their Bear Stearns acquisition and Blythe Masters of JPM has been tasked with suppressing silver ever since.  never liked trading either because of the manipulation, whether from JPM or the COMEX's margin hikes which always seem to support JPM.

Here are the charts, I did however recently think that a short in GLD was probably a good idea.

 Here's the large GLD triangle, these often function as tops or bottoms depending on the preceding trend, in this case a top. The triangle is WAY too big to be a consolidation pattern. You can see when GLD broke below the triangle's apex, it created a very bearish breakaway gap, which we don't see too often as this market has been diligent about filling gaps, the blue moving average is the long term 150 day that has acted as support for about 3 years, in October GLD pulled back and this is when I said, be careful. The break of the top and of the moving average are both bearish events of some significance.

 Here is GLD vs the Euro, they trade in lock step typically, but in this case the Euro seemed to give a heads up that GLD would fail as it made lower lows and highs while GLD rallied back in October/November.

 And here's the 200 day moving average which was broken and provided resistance on a November/December test. This failed test caused another break away gap which can be seen on the chart above in yellow.

 3C has shown the typical counter trend moves in any trend, but the bigger picture has been broad confirmation of the downtrend.


 Even on today's attempt we see 3C intraday giving way early on.

 Here is SLV and the 150 day average, note the parabolic spike when silver seemed to break free of JPM's manipulation, it wasn't long after that the COMEX stepped in with 5 consecutive margin hikes and killed that rally. Remember, the F_E_D and Treasury kind of owed JPM for stepping in and helping out with Bear Stearns, it wouldn't surprise me if.... Again, in yellow, very bearish breakaway gaps.

 And again, the typical counter trend moves, but overall broad confirmation of the downtrend.

Confirmation is apparent even on short term charts. I won't kid you, these two are very difficult to analyze as there are many under-currents from FX to Central bank buying, leasing of the metals and a ton of derivatives. One thing I have noticed, when an asset class starts seeing a ton of complicated derivatives based on the asset, we are close to the end of the bubble, think housing.

For now, my trade of choice is a swing trade short on strength in GLD, either shorting GLD or using the leveraged inverse ETF, DZZ which you buy long for short gold exposure. I prefer to keep the trades as swing trades and only at opportune times.

 The DZZ volume is interesting...

 As well as the triangle bottom and breakout.

Here's my crossover screen showing DZZ as a long right now, but I want to buy on pullbacks to the yellow 10 day and deeper pullbacks near the blue 22 day and ride these on a swing trade basis as you never know what will pop up next with these two complicated assets.