Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Overnight...

IMF wants to raise it's resources to $885 billion from the current $385 billion by raising another $500 billion after its assessment is there is a $1 trillion global financing gap in the next two years alone. We've talked about this before as the MF sought to raise money from increased quotas, the only problem was and remains, 95% of contributor countries have not ratified the vote, good luck getting that through Congress.

In Europe...

Portugal holds another successful debt auction today with most yields falling across various maturities. The yield for 3 month short term debt was unchanged from their last auction at 4.346%. Six month bills saw a yield of 4.740% which is less then the last 6 month auction at 5.25%. The 11 month bills were the longest dated maturity which have not been issued since last April just before they sought their $78 billion euro bailout. Yields at this auction for the 11 month were down to 4.986% vs. the April auction at 5.9%. Demand was anywhere from a BTC of 4.1x for the 3 month to 2.1 (which is just considered a successful auction) on the 11 month with the 6 month bills at 3.0.

Germany sold $3.44 billion in 2 year notes at .17% yield vs .27% in December. The Bid to cover rose to 2.2x vs a December auction that saw a weak 1.4 BTC. Clearly this auction was a flght to safety. Ir was only a few weeks ago that Germany sold $3.9 bn euros in 6 month bonds at a negative yield for the first time ever.

World Bank Slashes GDP Outlook 
The World Bank warned developing countries on Wednesday to prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the euro area debt crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in 2008/09.


According to the World bank, Europe entered a recession during Q4 2011.
World Bank urges developing economies to “prepare for the worst” as it sees risk for European turmoil to turn into global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008




Goldman Sachs Earnings...
Goldman missed on revenues,beat on EPS. The underlying theme in financial earnings continues, a decline in investment banking, in Goldman's case, -43% y.o.y.


As for Eco-data:


The Producer Price Index.

PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change0.3 %0.0 %-0.3 % to 0.3 %-0.1 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change5.7 %4.8 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.3 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change2.9 %3.0 %

The headline PPI declined at -.1% vs consensus of +.1%, but the report was mixed. Core PPI rose .3 on consensus of .1%. The Year over year change in the NSA PPI at 3.0% s the largest since summer (June) 2009. 


Industrial Production
Released on 1/18/2012 9:15:00 AM For Dec, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.2 %0.5 %0.0 % to 0.7 %0.4 %
Manufacturing - M/M0.5 %0.4 % to 0.8 %0.9 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level77.8 %78.1 %
 IP missed at .4% vs consensus of .5%, but did rise vs the previous at -.2. Demand was seen in business equipment, automobiles and construction.


ES didn't like something around 7 a.m. and  8:45 a.m., still not sure what it was except maybe a Euro down tick around the latter.


ES. 


ES opens about 2 points lower then yesterday's NY close after having rallied overnight as high as 9 points above the NY close, so t gave up close to 11 points from the overnight highs.













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