Friday, January 6, 2012

Baltic Dry Index

I was meaning to look at this yesterday, here we are...
 Anyone remember this period trading the shippers?  Admittedly , the index is volatile, but try to visualize the general trend.

Here's a 6 month chart with the SPY in green, unfortunately the scaling doesn't make the market look like it rallied much, but we know starting October 4th the rally was on, the BDI seems to have been a leading indicator for the rally, if so, then it's also giving some leading signals now, I'm sure you can see what I'm talking about.

This is just another confirmation of the China Syndrome. This weekend I'll be looking at ways of playing China, FXP is obvious, but I think certain commodities, maybe even the shippers might be a better play, especially given the Euro's trend regarding the latter asset class.

Speaking of which, yesterday I though FCX looked pretty good as a potential short play, thus far today it's confirming that view. For the more conservative, a break below $36.50 increases probabilities quite a bit on the head fake move.
FCX and what  believe to be a head fake on the triangle.

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